In an attempt to take the guesswork out of such speculation, Catherine Arnold of Credit Suisse examines a host of issues confronting the 13 major drugmakers, and in an investor note this morning, decides that Wyeth and Bristol-Myers Squibb rate as the highest 'natural' targets, while Novartis and GlaxoSmithKline are the most likely acquirers.
The combinations deemed 'very' possible:
Pfizer + Wyeth;
Novartis + Wyeth;
Glaxo + Bristol;
Glaxo + Astra;
Sanofi + Bristol.
My comment: Verrrry interesting. Although, I have to admit, Wyeth has been to the altar a number of times and managed to get out of tying the not.
What wasn't mentioned above is that there are really only two drug companies that would make a good investment for the next ten years, based on pipeline and lack of patent expiration. And that is Wyeth and Novartis.
Perhaps another reason for the two to join in holy matrimony?
Best analysis, however, goes to WSJ, here is a graphic representation of the future of the drug industry, which I humbly think is not too far-fetched:
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